What with Cheltenham Festival taking up most of the average punter’s attention this week, you may not be able to find the time to scan the formbook and check the injury news to pick out the best bets for this weekend across European football’s premier division.
So we’ve done the hard work for you! You can thank us later….
Schalke v Borussia M’gladbach – Schalke to Win (6/4)
These two teams are separated by one placing in the Bundesliga, and yet the contrast between their home and away form is stark.
Schalke are W7 D3 L3, while M’gladbach are W3 D2 L7 on the road: which puts them 14th of 18 in a theoretical away league table.
It’s understandable that the hosts here are slightly odds-against given the two teams’ proximity in the league, but a closer examination of the stats reveals that really they should be an odds-on shout.
Werder Bremen v Mainz – Mainz Draw No Bet (23/20)
Werder Bremen are a modern day phenomenon: here we are three-quarters of the way through the season and they are yet to keep a clean sheet. That is a bit of an impediment to them winning matches.
And so it has proved: Werder have won 2/12 at home this term. Advantage Mainz then.
Mainz have avoided defeat in more than half of their away matches (W5 D2 L6), and have not been beaten in four of their last six outings. Werder have won one of their last eight at home, so let’s back against them with confidence at odds-against.
Real Madrid v Sevilla – Real Madrid -1 (19/20)
You couldn’t describe Sevilla as a side that gets homesick. They currently reside in La Liga’s top six, and yet they have so far failed to win on the road in 2015/16. That is remarkable.
At the weekend they come up against a Real Madrid side that is scoring nearly four goals per game on average. More impressively, 11/12 of their home wins have come by a goal margin of two or more, and that sets the reels in motion for a similar pattern here.
Torino v Juventus – Juventus to Win (evens)
It’s very, very rare that you would see Juventus priced at the even money mark, and even more surprising given that Torino have won just once in eight attempts.
We all know about Juventus’ brilliance in the last few months, and having won 10/15 of their away matches this term – and 7/8 in recent weeks – we’re ecstatic to have an opportunity to double our money here.
Hearts v St Johnstone – Hearts to Win (19/20)
You might not know this, but Hearts have one of the best home records in the whole of the UK – W10 D3 L1. Happily for us, St Johnstone have lost 8/14 on the road, and so this pick looks on solid ground.
Hearts top the form table too with five wins in six, with the Saints bottom of the ten-game form table with six defeats in ten.
Leeds United v Huddersfield – Leeds Draw No Bet (evens)
This Yorkshire derby has been amped up by Leeds’ current form, who have notched three wins on the spin including respectable victories over Blackburn and Cardiff in recent weeks. One defeat in six – at Brighton no less – suggests that Steve Evans has installed a toughness in his charges.
Huddersfield have lost 50% of their away matches this term – conceding 28 in 18 – and three defeats in their last four suggests the Terriers are vulnerable right now.