We’re taking a slight detour today from our usual sporting concerns by taking a look at what the sweet baby Jesus is happening in the US Presidential race, and specifically why Donald Trump’s price has halved to best odds of 5/2 in little over a week.
What can Hilary Clinton do that is so bad that Trump even becomes a viable candidate for one of the most powerful positions on Earth?
Email Fail
The American people are a particularly paranoid bunch of people, certainly those in the South, and so it makes sense to not get yourself embroiled in a huge scandal just prior to the polling booths opening.
But that’s kind of what Clinton has done, with the FBI announcing that they will be reopening their investigation into her alleged use of a private email server (presidential candidates have to give full disclosure). This scandal has caused a certain shift in the polls, particularly in the key state of Florida, while the BBC ‘poll of polls’ found that her lead had been cut to just three points.
Even up against a racist, misogynistic opponent, Clinton has found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory – perhaps.
Next US President – The Betting View
The American electorate are a strange old bunch, and their unpredictability has not made life easy for the bookmakers. For instance, when Clinton suffered a health scare on the anniversary of 9/11, she had to pull out of a series of public appearances (it later turned out she had pneumonia). This, bizarrely, caused a huge shift in the polls towards Trump; as if somehow the Democratic candidate was unpatriotic for getting ill on such an important date. This is what traders are having to deal with.
So now Trump is available at anything from 5/2 to 15/8, and Clinton’s price has lengthened from a general 1/4 to 2/5.So where does the value lie in this ever-changing race to the White House?
The concern for any Democrat out there is that Trump is seemingly bombproof: despite the myriad of scandals and ill-advised statements he has made, his numbers in the polls have rarely slipped from a 35%-45% quadrant. The bad news is that if the FBI investigation reveals anything salacious, former Clinton supporters may now not take to the polling booth; which by proxy would strengthen Trump’s position.
Another angle is that Clinton’s key aide, Huma Abedin, has vicariously become involved in a sexting scandal involving her ex-husband Anthony Wiener and an underage girl. If this was Trump it is unlikely his terrible reputation would suffer any; but a Democratic link, no matter how tedious it may be, is likely to leave a huge stain, if you’ll pardon the pun, on Clinton’s campaign.
As we have seen from the Brexit polls, floating voters can be easily influenced by issues of corruption and sexual deviance, and let’s be honest, if a voter hasn’t been put off by Trump already then they never will be. This is, quite frankly, Clinton’s election to lose….and she’s doing a fine job of just that.
For punters looking to maximise any possible value, the best way forward is to bet on certain states in an accumulator. These are, typically, rather easy to predict: Nevada, for example, with its large immigrant population, will surely vote Democrat, as will the largely left-wing California. Conversely, southern states like Louisiana and Tennessee have lapped up the Republican rhetoric thus far.
Common sense should prevail ultimately and Clinton will stride home a little closer than planned but still with that all-important majority. State betting is the best way for punters to bring home the bacon, and we’ll take a closer look at that as we draw nearer to Wednesday’s vote.