Goals win games. That is the sentiment of many managers, who hope to ensure that their team is better than anyone else in both boxes. As bettors, placing a wager on the exact number of goals that a game will contain can be tricky, but opting for the Over / Under market makes things a little easier. It can seem confusing because bookmakers remove the possibility of a draw by labelling the bets something like Over 1.5 Goals or Under 1.5 Goals, knowing that half a goal isn’t a thing. It just means you’re betting on there being either more than two goals or fewer than two.
Over 1.5 Goals: A Bet on Two Goals or More
When it comes to the Over 1.5 Goals market, what you’re essentially betting on is there being at least two goals in the match that you’re betting on. It doesn’t matter whether there are two goals or 150, your bet will be a winner because there will have been more than 1.5 goals in the game. It also doesn’t matter whether the goals all come from one team or are split between the two of them, with the only important thing being the total number of goals scored in normal time. Similarly, they can be own goals or all scored by the same player, as long as they are legitimate.
In order to get a sense of how often you’re likely to see Over 1.5 Goals bets win, here is a look at the information across ten Premier League season:
| Season | Games with Over 1.5 Goals | Percentage with Over 1.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-2013 | 284 | 74.74% |
| 2013-2014 | 278 | 73.16% |
| 2014-2015 | 272 | 71.58% |
| 2015-2016 | 278 | 73.16% |
| 2016-2017 | 294 | 77.37% |
| 2017-2018 | 281 | 73.95% |
| 2018-2019 | 303 | 79.74% |
| 2019-2020 | 304 | 80% |
| 2020-2021 | 279 | 73.42% |
| 2021-2022 | 293 | 77.11% |
Over the course of ten seasons there were 3,800 games played in the Premier League. During that time, 2,866 of them ended up with Over 1.5 goals. That is equivalent to 75.42% of the games that were played resulting in an Over 1.5 Goals bet being a winner.
Examples
It is helpful to take a look at some example scorelines in which such a bet would’ve been a winning one:
- 2-0
- 5-1
- 3-2
- 8-3
- 6-5
In essence, any game that has two of more goals scored during the 90 minutes of normal time would’ve seen an Over 1.5 Goals bet paid out on. It is key to realise that the ‘in 90 minutes’ part is important, because a game that ended 0-0 in normal time and then saw three goals scored in extra-time would’ve been a losing one. That is because bookmakers only count normal time as being when the goals can be scored for these sorts of bets, so just bear that in mind when considering the wagers that you’re placing and the results of the matches you’ve bet on.
Under 1.5 Goals: The Game Will End 1-0 or 0-0
When it comes to bet ons on the Under 1.5 Goals bet, you are effectively wagering that the game that you’re watching will either end in a 0-0 draw or only one of the teams taking part in it will get on the scoresheet. In other words, you think it’s going to be a really close match and there will barely be anything separating the two sides by the time the full-time whistle is blown. When it comes to how often that happens, here is a look at the statistics for those same ten seasons in the Premier League that we’ve already looked at:
| Season | Games with Under 1.5 Goals | Percentage with Under 1.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-2013 | 96 | 25.26% |
| 2013-2014 | 102 | 26.84% |
| 2014-2015 | 108 | 28.42% |
| 2015-2016 | 102 | 26.84% |
| 2016-2017 | 86 | 22.63% |
| 2017-2018 | 99 | 26.05% |
| 2018-2019 | 77 | 79.74% |
| 2019-2020 | 76 | 20% |
| 2020-2021 | 101 | 26.58% |
| 2021-2022 | 87 | 77.11% |
During the course of 3,800 Premier League games over the ten seasons that we’re looking at, 934 matches ended up with fewer than 1.5 goals being scored. That amounts to 24.57% of the matches, so just shy of a quarter of all games played.
Examples
There are only three possible scores that would see an Under 1.5 Goals bet be a winning one, which are as follows:
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-1
As with the Over market, it is important to realise that matches that go into extra-time because of a draw won’t have any impact on your wager. You’re betting on the number of goals scored at the end of the 90 minutes of normal time, so you can safely discard any goals that come during the period of extra-time.
If you’re betting on a Champions League match, for example, and the game finished 1-0 on the night, making it 1-1 on aggregate because they first leg also ended 1-0, your bet is a winner. Fewer than 1.5 Goals have been scored in the 90 minutes of the game you’re betting on, with neither the first-leg nor the extra-time score being in any way relevant.