Betting on the number of goals that are likely to be scored in a match isn’t an easy thing to do, so one of the best things that you can choose to do is make life easier on yourself. The Over / Under market is a good way of doing so because it lets you be a little bit less specific whilst also giving some wiggle room. When betting on Over 3.5 Goals you’re saying there will be four goals or more in a match in total, whilst a bet on the Under 3.5 Goals market is a wager that says that there will be three goals or fewer scored in total by the two teams playing in the game.
Over 3.5 Goals: Four Goals or More Is a Winner
If you’ve chosen to bet on Over 3.5 Goals in a game, you are of the opinion that there will be four goals or more scored during the duration of the match in question. You don’t need to worry about which players are scoring the goals or even which teams. It is a bet on the total number of goals, so you add those scored by both teams together to figure out if your bet is a winning one or not.
We will now take a look at ten seasons of Premier League action to get a sense of how likely or otherwise it will be that there will be Over 3.5 Goals scored:
| Season | Games with Over 3.5 Goals | Percentage with Over 3.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-2013 | 121 | 31.84% |
| 2013-2014 | 126 | 33.16% |
| 2014-2015 | 99 | 26.05% |
| 2015-2016 | 116 | 30.53% |
| 2016-2017 | 123 | 32.37% |
| 2017-2018 | 111 | 29.21% |
| 2018-2019 | 120 | 31.58% |
| 2019-2020 | 107 | 28.16% |
| 2020-2021 | 102 | 26.84% |
| 2021-2022 | 124 | 32.63% |
We’ve looked at ten seasons there, which means that 3,800 matches were played. During that time, 1,149 of them featured Over 3.5 Goals as a winning bet. That is 30.23% of the games in question and the first time that the Under is a clear winner of the two options.
Examples
Here is a look at some scorelines that would be winning bets if you’d opted for the Over 3.5 Goals option, with the rule of thumb being that they are generally high-scoring matches:
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 4-3
- 7-1
- 8-4
The key thing to remember is that the total number of goals scored within the game is what you’re looking at. When you’ve added them together, if there are four goals or more then you’re going to be a winner on the Over 3.5 Goals market. These goals can be scored by any player in any legal manner, including own goals and penalties within the 90 minutes of the match. It is only penalty shootouts or extra-time that wouldn’t count as far as the bookmakers are concerned, hence the reason the goals scored in normal time are what we’re looking at.
Under 3.5 Goals: Three or Fewer Goals Scored
When you’re betting on the market of Under 3.5 Goals, you’re looking at a match in which three goals or fewer are scored. That is made to look more complicated than it really is by the presence of the .5 in the bet, which is put there in order to stop the possibility of the wager being a push. Half goals don’t exist in football, so your bet will be settled one way or the other by the end of the match that you’re betting on. Here is a look at how many times it happened across the same ten seasons that we’ve already looked at:
| Season | Games with Under 3.5 Goals | Percentage with Under 3.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-2013 | 259 | 68.16% |
| 2013-2014 | 254 | 66.84% |
| 2014-2015 | 281 | 73.95% |
| 2015-2016 | 264 | 69.47% |
| 2016-2017 | 257 | 67.63% |
| 2017-2018 | 269 | 70.79% |
| 2018-2019 | 260 | 68.42% |
| 2019-2020 | 273 | 71.84% |
| 2020-2021 | 278 | 73.16% |
| 2021-2022 | 256 | 67.37% |
We have looked at ten season for the Under 3.5 Goals market, which means that there were 3,800 games played. During the course of them, 2,651 matches ended up with Under 3.5 Goals being a winning bet. That is 69.76% of the games played and means that far more matches saw Under 3.5 Goals being scored than Over.
Examples
It is worth having a look at the scorelines that would see a bet on Under 3.5 Goals being a winning one. They are as follows:
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
- 0-3
The most dominant scoreline that would see an Under 3.5 Goals bet being a winning one is 3-0, whether to the home side or the away team. Otherwise, it is a relatively low scoring game, with both teams having the ability to get on the scoresheet without your bet becoming a losing one as a result.
As with the Over 3.5 Goals market, you need to ensure that the goals were scored during the 90 minutes of normal time. In other words, if the game goes to extra-time, such as a European match, then the goals scored during that period won’t count towards your bet. By the time the referee blows the full-time whistle after the 90 minutes, the score as it stands in the individual match is the score that the bookmakers will look at when settling your bet.