Premier League Betting Tips – The Form Table Never Lies (Part 4)

For the third week running, this column returned a profit. This time, a mighty £2.04! But for what started as an experiment, and is well into profit for its run, we are pleased with the results to date. Unlike the staff at East Midlands Trains, we want to keep this particular train on the tracks and running smoothly.

Here is an overview of last week’s results:

  • Norwich vs Sunderland – The Draw (-£5)
  • Everton vs Southampton – Southampton to Win (-£5)
  • Man Utd vs Aston Villa – Man Utd -1 Handicap (-£5)
  • Newcastle vs Swansea – Swansea Draw No Bet (-£5)
  • West Brom vs Watford – Both Teams to Score (No) & Under 2.5 Goals (+£.9.54)
  • Chelsea vs Man City – The Draw (-£5)
  • Arsenal vs Crystal Palace – Both Teams to Score (+£9.75)
  • Leicester vs West Ham – The Draw (+£18)
  • Bournemouth vs Liverpool – Over 2.5 Goals (+£9.75)

So we’ll go with the same format once again this week: £5 wagers based on selections permed from the form table, nothing else. This is how that table looks by the way:

Premier League Stats

So how are this week’s fixtures shaping up?

Man City vs Stoke

The form table reveals two sides going in completely opposite directions at the moment. Man City are winning 50% of their matches at the moment and defending well – conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average, while for Stoke the contrast is marked: they are losing 50% of their matches and conceding at 2.33 goals per game; the injury to Jack Butland has clearly hit them hard. We know Manuel Pellegrini will rest players with one eye on the Champions League, but the form table suggests this won’t matter.

Man City -1 Handicap at 8/11 (£5 returns £8.63)

Aston Villa vs Southampton

You don’t need the form table to tell you that Aston Villa simply aren’t winning at the moment, while Southampton have triumphed in three of their last six. The Villa aren’t scoring goals – that’s been their downfall all term – while the Saints are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding just over a goal per game on average. We’d expect the Villa players to try a little harder in front of their own fans, hence this selection.

Southampton to Win & Under 2.5 Goals at 9/4 (£5 returns £16.25)

Bournemouth vs Chelsea

When two teams collide that are both scoring and conceding more than one goal per game on average, it makes sense to go with the Both Teams to Score market. Only one point separates Bournemouth and Chelsea in the form table, but with both sets of players still having plenty to play for (the Cherries will turn it on at home while Chelsea need to impress new boss Antonio Conte) don’t expect a lessening in the intensity levels.

Both Teams to Score at 4/6 (£5 returns £8.33)

Liverpool vs Newcastle

This is one of those classic Premier League fixtures, and historically has always had goals in it. Happily, the form table suggests this could be the case once again: Liverpool are scoring 2.50 per game themselves, and conceding more than a goal per game. Newcastle are scoring and conceding at a rate greater than one per match, and with eight points separating them in the form guide then this selection is a no-brainer.

Liverpool to Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (£5 returns £11)

Sunderland vs Arsenal

This is when the old ‘form table never lies’ thing comes back to bite you on the backside. Nevertheless, we must go with it: these sides have drawn 7/12 between them according to our guide, and so we have to back the same here.

The Draw at 3/1 (£5 returns £20)

Leicester vs Swansea

The form table has made this one a hard match to gauge too. Leicester have won 83% of their last six – that’s compelling enough – but Swansea have avoided defeat in 66% too. Perhaps the best angle is goals….or a lack of. Leicester aren’t conceding, and they will be missing Jamie Vardy so their attack has been blunted. Swansea score and concede around the goal per game mark.

Under 2.5 Goals at 4/6 (£5 returns £8.33)