Spotting opportunities is key for successful long-term betting success: over longer periods of time, gut instinct and hunches simply don’t get the job done, and we need to get stuck into some good old-fashioned research to try and wrestle some of the edge back from the bookies.
That’s why doing your homework is crucial in securing the best football betting tips, and for the past seven weeks or so we’ve been busy working away at our ‘Predictive Leagues’ spreadsheets.
These outline which of the top four divisions (outside of the Premier League) in English football are the best for predictable results, unpredictable scorelines and draws. Armed with this information, punters then have a key ‘marginal gain’ heading into the weekend’s action.
So without further ado, here are the updates sheets which are present and correct up to Monday September 19:
The Championship
- Best Division For: Nothing!
- Worst Division For: Everything!
What we mean by this is that The Championship does not have the highest percentages for predictable or unpredictable results or the draw. As you can see from the numbers detailed in the graphic above, less than half of all games finish as the bookmakers expected them to, while around half finish in either a draw or an unexpected result.
The upshot for punters is that the Championship has become rather unpredictable in the last few weeks, and for now is perhaps one best to avoid.
League One
- Best Division For: Draws
- Worst Division For: Unpredictable Results
Coming up with the logic behind it is tough, but the results speak for themselves: our graphic shows that more than one-in-three League One matches end in a stalemate.
The predictable result column is reasonably low, but the good news is that the unpredictable result ratio is the lowest of all four divisions, and so punters can bet with reasonable confidence on their favourite sides and even take a look at one or two draws which offer a fantastic return.
League Two
- Best Division For: Unpredictable Results
- Worst Division For: Predictable Results
If you like sure bets or building accas then League Two is currently a division to avoid like the plague. As you can see, just 39% of games are finishing as we would expect them to given the bookmakers’ odds, while a relatively huge 34% – more than one-in-three of course – are going the opposite way.
But then if you’re looking for longer-priced, outside shots then League Two appears to be very much worth a go.
National League
- Best Division For: Predictable Results
- Worst Division For: Draws
This is more like it: more than half of National League matches end in the manner in which the bookmakers predicted with their pricing.
Naturally, this means we can bet with confidence and add matches to our accas and multiples to help build our betslips. Noticeably, the prices offered here are lower than most other divisions due to that higher win percentage, so if you do play the accumulator game then this is your best bet by far.